Here’s my bet: Before the end of 2012 Greece will default on its sovereign debt and bring its own FIAT currency in existence. That doesn’t necessarily mean for Greece to exit the Eurozone. Montenegro did well having two currencies as legal tender — the Dinar and the German Mark.

Some reasons: Most obvious the insane austerity measures imposed by The Troika will cripple the economy. An ongoing recession will trigger the automatic stabilizers. Tax revenue will go down and welfare expenditures will go up. The debt mountain will grow further. Privatization won’t help either. A distressed public sector selling off its assets by mandate without the possibility to walk away from bad deals isn’t a good idea. Potential buyers will exert their negotiation power and only buy for deflated fire sale prices. Then they will set in motion measurements to maximize profit through efficiency gains. Which means in plain English mass layoffs. These will again trigger the automatic stabilizers. Finally the penalty interest rate on the supposed “rescue” loans is way too high and will reduce nominal demand on an extra-ordinary scale. The substantial outflow of €s to foreign creditors is the final nail in the coffin of Greece.

Any takers?