April 1st I read the »Employment Situation« of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS summary says: “Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.8 percent,”. Then I read on April 4th »Hiring spree beefs up McDonald’s recent boom« on MSN Money. McDonald’s wants to hire as many as 50,000 workers on April 19th. I thought: Wow. How will the US media cover the next “Employment Situation” report for April? Most probable with some Hooray! the economy is improving. And we won’t hear, that “Employment in leisure and hospitality rose by 100,000 over the month,”, which is the noble BLS paraphrase for jobs paying a decent minimum wage.
Now Tom Hickey reminds me with a blog post over at the Mike Norman Economics MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) blog, that McDonald’s actually added 62,000 slaves workers to its payroll after receiving more than 1,000,000 applications. So for each job opening there were approximate 16 applications? The US is a Burger Economy? But here’s another idea. The NBER should develop a Composite McDonald’s Index as an alternative to the arcane calculations whether the US economy is in a recession. The idea is pretty simple. Stephan’s Golden McDonald’s Rule: If McDonald’s is doing exceptionally well in the US, US workers are in a recession. Now how might such a Index look like? (Don’t even think about it. I’ve already a © for that one.)
Take the number of hours worked by the crew (McDonald’s lingo) per week plus the number of units sold of typical subsistence products — the McDonald’s poor man basket excluding luxuries like coffee, … Index this composition to a year in which the US economy was doing pretty well. Find a threshold which indicates that the US main-street economy goes South. Voila. Once the Composite McDonald’s Index is above our threshold US workers are fucked.